Friday, April 28, 2006

"Will the Doha Round Do More Harm than Good?"

Tufts' development experts and trade agreement skeptics Timothy Wise and Kevin Gallagher ask, "Will the Doha Round do more harm than good?."

Among their findings:
For many countries the loss of tariff revenues with liberalization are greater than the projected gains from a Doha agreement. India, for example, would lose nearly $8 billion in annual revenues from manufacturing tariffs, almost four times the projected gains of $2.2 billion. For the developing world as a whole, a projected gain of just $7 billion would be swamped by $63 billion in losses from tariffs on manufactured goods.
Do the authors compare projected net gains from trade to tariff revenue losses?

If so, that would be misleading. It would be like saying, "The oil industry did badly this quarter. Sure, the profits of the three biggest companies were $16 billion (statistic corrected 5/2/2006), but their total costs of production were much higher." The statistics would be correct, but the conclusion would be wrong.